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Hurricane Pablo (Bruh Season)
:For other storms of the same name, see Tropical Storm Pablo. Hurricane Pablo was the most damaging hurricane to hit Cuba since Hurricane Irma in 2017. It was the eighteenth named storm, twelfth hurricane and fifth major hurricane of the record-breaking 2031 Atlantic hurricane season. Pablo was one of the costliest storms of the season, causing $17.3 billion dollars in damage, mostly in Cuba and the United States, and to a lesser extent in Haiti and Jamaica. Pablo developed from a tropical wave well east of the Windward Islands on August 16, eventually intensifying into a tropical storm before degenerating into an open wave. It quickly regenerated, rapidly intensifying into a strong Category 4 hurricane before it made its first of three landfalls in Cuba on August 22, causing critical damage in the island and surrounding locations. Pablo would go on to make landfall in the United States, specifically the state of Florida, on August 27 before weakening and moving into the Atlantic Ocean, where the storm briefly re-intensified into a tropical storm before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 28. In its first phase as a tropical cyclone, Pablo caused minimal damage in the Windward Islands. As it moved through the Jamaica Channel and eventually struck the Caribbean coast of Cuba, it brought widespread and severe damage; Pablo devastated entire cities (especially Santiago de Cuba) and ravaged through large swaths of farmland while following its strange path through the eastern portions of Cuba before re-intensifying and making a third landfall near the western tip of the country as a strong tropical storm, causing some more damage. Pablo killed 15 people in the country, as well as 3 more in the United States' Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which was pummeled by the extreme winds of Pablo's eyewall. After passing through the state of Florida, Pablo left 700,000 people without electricity, as well as strong coastal flooding and other damage, resulting in 7 deaths and about $1.6 billion in damage. Pablo also caused some minimal damage across the Southeastern United States before undergoing extratropical transition. Overall, Pablo's destruction resulted in 23 direct and 19 indirect deaths. __TOC__ Meteorological history on August 17]] The origins of Pablo can be traced back to a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 12. As the system tracked westward, it encountered conditions that allowed for gradual development. An area of low pressure formed within the tropical wave which slowly organized before being designated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on August 16. Around 18 hours later, the storm had intensified into a tropical storm and was named Pablo. Despite some intensification, resulting in an initial peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h), below-average sea surface temperatures combined with increasingly strong wind shear meant that Pablo, already somewhat disorganized, began to quickly unravel, and opened up into a tropical wave at 00:00 UTC on August 18, with its center around 35 miles (55 km) southwest of Guadeloupe. As the remnants of Pablo continued to trek westward, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued to monitor the system as the system began to enter an area with favorable conditions for redevelopment. After the presence of a closed circulation was confirmed, Pablo was officially redesignated as a tropical depression at 06:00 UTC on August 19. As it entered into an area with warm sea surface temperatures, Pablo began to organize and intensify further, as it re-intensified into a tropical storm just 12 hours after its regeneration. As Pablo continued moving toward the west, although with a slower forward speed, a central dense overcast formed as Pablo began to intensify at a more rapid pace. A Hurricane Hunters reconnaissance mission on August 20 would confirm the presence of sustained hurricane-force winds and that a small eye was forming in the center of the storm; at 18:00 UTC the same day, Pablo was upgraded to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) while located 160 mi (260 km) south-southeast of Les Cayes, Haiti. Pablo continued its trend of intensification while it continued meandering toward the west-northwest, becoming a Category 2 hurricane just twelve hours later. Still, as it moved into the Jamaica Channel, Pablo encountered even warmer sea surface temperatures allowing it to intensify even faster than before. At 00:00 UTC on August 22, Pablo had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h); about 24 hours later, as it was approaching Cuba, Pablo reached peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 930 mbar. At 01:20 UTC the same day, Pablo made landfall about 25 miles (40 km) east-southeast of Santiago de Cuba and 20 miles (32 km) west of the United States' Guantanamo Bay Naval Base. After Pablo began interacting with land in eastern Cuba, it drastically weakened, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 85 mph (140 km/h) within 12 hours and its eye dissipating as it emerged into the Atlantic Ocean. The storm now slowly moved toward the west-northwest as it continued to weaken; by the time it made its second landfall 30 miles (48 km) north-northwest of Holguín at 18:30 UTC on August 24, maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph (55 km/h). Even though Pablo became increasingly weak and disorganized as it traversed through Cuba for a second time, it remained a tropical cyclone. At 19:45 UTC the same day, while tracking southwestward, Pablo re-emerged into the Caribbean Sea off the coast of the Cuban province of Granma. Favorable conditions allowed Pablo to re-intensify as it moved toward the west, with Pablo re-attaining tropical storm status at 12:00 UTC on August 25. The storm continued to re-organize as it moved toward the western end of Cuba, with a central dense overcast forming in the storm as it intensified. Maximum sustained winds eventually reached 65 mph (100 km/h) before Pablo made landfall at 10:40 UTC on August 26. Despite the storm significantly weakening after landfall, Pablo quickly began to intensify again once it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection, and eventually a central dense overcast, formed around its center as Pablo again quickly intensified. The appearance of an eye beginning to form on satellite imagery along with reconnaissance measurements indicating hurricane-force winds led to Pablo being upgraded to a hurricane for the second time in its life. Pablo reached its secondary peak intensity at 12:00 UTC on August 27 with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (13 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 985 mbar. Just three hours later, Pablo made landfall about 45 miles (72 km) north-northwest of Fort Myers, Florida. After making landfall, Pablo began to significantly weaken as it made its way through the state, with the storm weakening to a tropical depression just nine hours after landfall. Still, as Pablo re-emerged into the Atlantic Ocean, quickly moving toward the northeast, it was able to re-intensify into a tropical storm. However, the storm was also beginning to undergo extratropical transition, quickly completing this process at 18:00 UTC on August 28. The remnants of Pablo continued to meander to the northeast, losing tropical storm-force winds on August 30. The system continued to move towards the east, passing through the southern portions of Newfoundland before eventually dissipating on September 2, northeast of Ireland. Preparations Lesser Antilles On August 16, the first tropical storm watches were issued for St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Later on, these became tropical storm warnings as watches were issued for Grenada and the island of Guadeloupe. These were later discontinued as Pablo degenerated into an open wave on August 18. Jamaica on August 21]] Tropical storm watches were first issued on the island of Jamaica on August 19. These were eventually and gradually upgraded all the way up to hurricane warnings on August 21 as Pablo was forecast to closely approach the island. As the hurricane approached, tourists in the country were quickly evacuated via air and about 400,000 Jamaicans were told to evacuate from coastal areas; schools and government offices also closed down the same day. Haiti As Pablo regenerated and intensified into a tropical storm on August 19, the government of Haiti issued a tropical storm watch from its southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. These were later changed to tropical storm warnings the next day. Around 600 shelters were opened as the Haitian government ordered people in low-lying areas to evacuate. Schools were also closed starting August 21, and all tourists within the nation at the time were evacuated. Cuba The government of Cuba issued its first hurricane and tropical storm watches on Pablo early on August 21; within 12 hours, these were upgraded to warnings. By 21:00 UTC on August 22, hurricane warnings were in effect from the border between the Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo provinces to the border between the Guantánamo and Holguín provinces; tropical storm warnings were also in effect from the border between the Granma and Santiago de Cuba provinces and the border between the Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo provinces, as well as from the border between the Guantánamo and Holguín provinces to the border between the Holguín and Las Tunas provinces. That day, all non-essential personnel at the United States' Guantanamo Bay Naval Base began to evacuate. Around 2 million people were evacuated in the eastern provinces of Cuba from August 22 to 23, prioritizing those on the coast. Residents stockpiled supplies and emergency personnel were dispatched to the area, especially in places that would be at higher risk due to the hurricane. Hundreds of shelters were set up to house people who were forced to evacuate in anticipation of Pablo. As Pablo later re-intensified into a tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea on August 25, the government of Cuba issued a tropical storm watch from the southern to the northern borders between the Pinar del Río and La Habana provinces. These were quickly upgraded to warnings as Pablo quickly moved towards the western end of Cuba. Preparations here were relatively minor compared to in eastern parts of the country, however some 60,000 residents in low-lying areas were asked to evacuate and a small number of tourists in the Havana area left the country to avoid any possible effects from Pablo. United States At 03:00 UTC on August 26, the first storm watches on the mainland United States, specifically Florida, were issued. Tropical storm watches at this time extended from Egmont Key to Englewood and from Bonita Springs to Key Largo; hurricane watches were issued from Englewood to Bonita Springs. Storm surge watches were also issued from Egmont Key to Key Largo. Approximately twelve hours later, the tropical storm and storm surge watches were replaced with tropical storm and storm surge warnings covering the coast of Florida from Egmont Key to Key Largo. By the time Pablo had intensified into a hurricane on August 27, tropical storm warnings stretched from the mouth of the Anclote River to Englewood, from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef. Hurricane warnings were also issued from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and storm surge warnings were issued from the mouth of the Anclote River to Ocean Reef. On August 26, Florida governor Michael Ryne declared a state of emergency in 14 counties along the western coast of Florida, issuing some mandatory evacuations in Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee counties in anticipation of heavy storm surge, while other areas received voluntary evacuations; still, most residents ended up riding out the storm, stocking up on supplies and boarding up their windows. Many flights were canceled at the Southwest Florida International Airport in anticipation of severe weather from Pablo. Schools were closed in parts of Western Florida from August 26 to August 27. Impact Lesser Antilles As a weak tropical storm and later an open tropical wave, Pablo mainly brought moderate to strong rainfall to the Lesser Antilles (specifically the Windward Islands), with 9 inches reported in Barbados and 6 inches reported in St. Lucia. Pablo also caused rough waves and moderate winds, with some residents reporting property damage from knocked down trees and power lines. Total damage was minimal, and no deaths are known to have been caused by Pablo in the Lesser Antilles. Jamaica Pablo made its closest approach to the island of Jamaica at 06:00 UTC, or 1:00 AM EST, on August 22, approximately 50 miles (80 km) east-northeast of Morant Point. Widespread property damage occurred, especially in the eastern part of the country, where hurricane force winds were recorded. Heavy rainfall occurred across the country, along with flash flooding, resulting in inundation of many coastal areas and damage to agriculture and livestock. Various communities along the eastern side of Jamaica were affected, and numerous highways were closed due to flooding. Approximately 600,000 Jamaicans were left without electricity, mainly due to downed power lines. Compared to the eastern parts of the country, the capital of Kingston only suffered moderate damage, although it was still affected by rainfall and tropical storm force winds were recorded. Overall, damages in Jamaica reached a total of $460 million. Two people also died indirectly as Pablo passed by the nation. Haiti Pablo was closest to Haiti at 06:00 UTC, or 1:00 AM EST, on August 22, approximately 70 miles (113 km) east of Anse-d'Hainault. Despite the fact that hurricane-force winds did not reach the nation, Haiti was still heavily damaged by Pablo. Damage in Haiti is estimated at $310 million, as large amounts of storm surge and rainfall inundated communities across the Tiburon Peninsula; as much as 80% of residential structures, schools, and other buildings were destroyed in various coastal areas mainly due to poor building construction. Various roads and bridges were damaged, isolating people from more rural areas, and agricultural operations were heavily disrupted. 13 direct and 2 indirect deaths occurred as a result of Pablo's passing. Cuba Pablo made its first landfall on the country of Cuba at 01:20 UTC on August 22, or 8:20 PM EST on August 21, about 25 miles (40 km) east-southeast of Santiago de Cuba and 20 miles (32 km) west of the United States' Guantanamo Bay Naval Base. A weather station recorded a wind gust of 149 mph (240 km/h) at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, along with maximum sustained winds of 118 mph (190 km/h) before the station failed. The base suffered severe damage after it was inflicted with the full brunt of Pablo's eyewall, with many facilities suffering heavy damage due in part to extremely strong winds and a 10 ft (3 m) storm surge. The US government reported 1 direct and 2 indirect deaths on the base. An estimated 85% of structures in Guantanamo Bay suffered damage, ranging from some debris to decimation of entire buildings. Estimates place the amount of damage in the naval base at around $2.3 billion. Within the country of Cuba, Pablo caused devastating damage, with the government reporting $12.6 billion in damage due to massive amounts of rainfall and storm surge. In the city of Santiago de Cuba, an 8 ft (2 m) storm surge was reported; this, combined with extreme winds, decimated a vast majority of buildings, displacing about 220,000 people. Other cities, like Guantánamo and Holguín, also suffered significant damage. Overall, the eastern provinces of Cuba suffered from widespread flooding, severely damaging urban and rural communities and disrupting agricultural operations; 14 deaths recorded in eastern parts of Cuba were attributed to Pablo. Pablo made its third Cuba landfall as a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), at 10:40 UTC, or 5:40 AM EST, on August 26. At the time of landfall, Pablo was about 40 miles (64 km) southwest of Pinar del Río, which suffered moderate damage from the storm. Effects from Pablo in the western parts of Cuba were widespread and felt as far away as Havana, although it was mostly moderate. One death was reported near the western tip of Cuba, attributed to flooding. United States An automated weather station near Fort Myers, Florida registered a peak wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h) and maximum sustained winds of 63 mph (101 km/h) before Pablo made landfall at 12:00 UTC, or 8:00 AM EDT, on August 27. As Pablo made its way across Central Florida, it created moderately large amounts of rainfall and coastal flooding, especially near Fort Myers and Cape Coral, which suffered around 6 ft (2 m) of flash floods. Strong winds also damaged many buildings, and the toppling of trees and power lines affected residential areas and caused power outages respectively; about 700,000 customers lost power across the state of Florida. In the Tampa Bay area, residents suffered moderate damage, with minor coastal flooding accompanied with strong rainfall. 70% of homes suffered at least some damage. 6 tornadoes were recorded in Florida during the passage of Pablo, which were all of EF0 strength and caused little to no damage. In Georgia and the Carolinas, residents on the coast felt tropical storm winds, along with minor rainfall and high swells. No deaths were reported and the amount of damage was minimal. A total of 7 deaths were recorded in the state of Florida, as well as about $1.63 billion in damage for the entire mainland United States. Elsewhere The extratropical remnants of Pablo brought moderate rainfall to Newfoundland and brought some winds, causing minimal damage. Aftermath Across the Greater Antilles, and especially in Cuba, organizations including the World Food Programme and the Red Cross began supplying humanitarian aid to an estimated 2.6 million people. Multiple world governments also contributed aid in multiple forms, ranging from monetary contributions to direct aid. United States president Wolf Haley signed an emergency declaration on August 26, authorizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to coordinate disaster effort. Residents in 17 Florida counties were eligible for federal aid due to the damage of Pablo. Retirement Due to the extensive amount of damage and casualties caused in Cuba and in the Eastern United States, especially in Florida, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Pablo and replaced it with Pedro for the 2037 Atlantic hurricane season. It will never be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. See also * List of Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes * List of retired Atlantic hurricane names * Hurricane Gustav – affected Cuba as a similarly strong Category 4 hurricane * Hurricane Sandy – also hit eastern Cuba as a major hurricane * Hurricane Michelle – similarly affected Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane * Hurricane Dennis – affected Cuba and Florida as a Category 4 hurricane * Hurricane Paloma – followed a similar path before hitting Cuba as a strong hurricane * Hurricane Irene (1999) – affected the same regions in both Cuba and Florida as a tropical storm and as a Category 1 hurricane respectively * Hurricane Hermine – hit Florida at a similar intensity Category:2031 Atlantic hurricane season (Bruh Season) Category:Astrohuncho Category:Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes Category:Hurricanes in the Windward Islands Category:Hurricanes in the Greater Antilles Category:Hurricanes in Jamaica Category:Hurricanes in Haiti Category:Hurricanes in Cuba Category:Hurricanes in Florida Category:Retired Atlantic hurricanes